It may be a bizarre elixir for the current economic crisis, but Bloomberg Television has declared chocolate a potential cure.
On Bloomberg’s Nov. 25 “In Focus,” Bloomberg News correspondent Su Keenan showed that cocoa commodities tend to do better in tough economic times
“If you’ve been craving chocolate lately, you may not be alone,” Su Keenan said. “Analysts say worries about jobs and the recession have people desiring a little something sweet – like a Hershey’s kiss. And that can boost sales of candy bars and the cocoa that goes into making them.”
And according to Keenan, the shifts in the unemployment rate are tied to shifts in the price of cocoa commodities. “Over the past decade, cocoa prices and the unemployment rate have gone hand and hand,” she said.
Keenan pointed out cocoa prices have slumped in the second half of 2008 as investors have liquidated their holdings of commodities in the wake of the economic crisis. However, prices are predicted to rise 22 percent through the beginning of 2009.
Chocolate – or in its raw form, cocoa – is one of the unusual economic indicators the media have used over the last 12 months to exaggerate economic turmoil.
Earlier this year, NBC’s “Today” noted the up-tick in pawn shop business. CNN unveiled a sad puppy indicator based on pet abandonment. In May, “NBC Nightly News” created a Craigslist indicator, based on Internet classified ads. Later, “Nightly News” announced the Spam indicator, reporting that increased sales of Spam – which in reality is more expensive than fresh meats – indicated a struggling economy. Others have reported indicators based on Starbucks, RV sales and sweaters.
“If people can’t afford to go to the restaurant, they’ll go and buy a couple of candy bars,” Eugen Weinberg, a commodities specialist with Commerzbank (FRA:CBK), said to Bloomberg.
Keenan pointed toward shares of Hershey’s (NYSE:HSY), which are off only 12 percent versus a 42 percent drop for the S&P 500. Cadbury (NYSE:CBY), down 21 percent, and Nestle (VTX:NESN), down 20 percent, have also managed to weather the crisis relative to other financial indices.
